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2005-07-05

Prediction of the final result of the election in Albania 

17:00- Ugliness rears its head as four PS-candidates have contested [AL] the results in their constituencies and the road to an official final result is therefore getting longer and longer.

Meanwhile, I've head a look at the proportional vote based on the incomplete count figures given by the Central Electoral Commission. Both big parties use the proportional vote to nurture a range of small allied parties that would not have a chance to win first-past-the-post seats. This explains why the two big parties get only around 10% each in the proportional vote, whereas the two "strongest" parties there are the PR, a PD-ally, with over 20%, and the PSD, a PS-ally, with close to 11%. For the total tally of direct and proportional seats below, I have put the LSI in the left-wing camp and the monarchists of the LZHK in the right-wing camp for simplicity.

From this I predict 74 seats for Berisha's right-wing camp against 65 seats for Nano's left-wing camp, with one independent deputy completing the 140 seat assembly.

In details:

Left: PS 47(+-2) - PSD 5 - LSI 5 - AD 2 - PAA 2 - PBDNJ 2 - PDSSH 2

Right: PD 59(+-2) - PR 10 - PDR 3 - PDK 1 - LZHK 1

To conclude, it's a Berisha victory, but Genc Pollo of the PDR was right to say in an interview before the election that if Berisha will try to do crazy things, there are forces in his coalition who can discipline him - namely the PR and the PDR, who will carry a big responsibility.


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