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2005-07-05

Albanian election analysis: PD victory with the help of LSI 

12:00- I have scraped some data off the website of the Central Electoral Commission. There are inofficial data for 89 direct seats:

PD 52 seats
PS 34 seats
LSI 1, PBDNJ 1, Indep. 1

4 seats for PD and PS each are very close. Most of the 11 seats for which there were no data are in the South, so if the PS wins them by 2:1 margin, this would yield approx. PD 55 - PS 42.

I also counted the number of seats which the PS would likely have won if the LSI had not defected - there seemed to be no less than 9 such seats, meaning the result could have been PD 46 - PS+LSI 52 if Nano and Meta were still friends. They have dug their own grave, so to say.

However, the PD is still well short of the absolute majority of 71. For that, it will need more than 16 seats from the proportional count that determines the remaining 40 seats, where it looks that the center-right Republican Party (PR) is doing very well [AL] (at 20% of the vote, with PS and PD trailing at 10% each). So it looks like the PR will be the kingmaker and as far as I know its coalition preferences are not entirely clear - probably PD though.

A much more final result can now be expected from the Central Electoral Commission relatively soon, but the important point about the LSI role will then still stand.


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