Read the Head Heeb on the Future of Lebanon 

Only to remind you that there is nothing in principle that prevents bloggers from writing fantastically sophisticated and well-researched pieces of political analysis:

The Head Heeb, Lebanese Politics for Beginners, Part 5:
Only a fool would try to predict Lebanon's future. Not only is it hard enough to figure out the present, but the political situation is fluid enough that possibilities open and close by the day. Anyone who claims to know who the president of Lebanon will be in 2025, or what the country's electoral law will be, is speaking from clairvoyance rather than extrapolation. This essay will be about possible futures, not probable ones.

I will venture to make only four predictions...
Highly recommended.

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