<$BlogRSDURL$>

2004-11-25

Ukraine - analysis and an attempt on implications 

Useful analysis:

Le Sabot Post-Moderne, an American expatriate in Kyiv, "Behind the Scenes -- How and Why the Ukrainian Election was Stolen, Part I"

The Yorkshire Ranter, "Ukraine - A Slow Rot or Speedy End?"

The Economist on "Europe's new divisions"

---

My own impression of today is that it can still go either way. But what I'm starting to realize is that this is going to remain a defining event for an extended period, because the losing side is most probably not going to pack up and fall silent. Due to the size and importance of Ukraine, this will affect the whole regional balance of power.

If the pro-Russia camp of Yanukovich wins, the opposition with its once-mobilised masses will continue to press for revolution, similar maybe to the situation in Serbia before Milosevic's final downfall. Tensions between the EU and Ukraine's rulers, as well as Russia, will be high, and EU-Russia relations will be yet more confrontational.

If the pro-Western camp of Yushchenko wins, it will have a hard time winning over the pro-Russian parts of the population, and re-occuring corruption under the new leaders might lead to a polarised political climate that might even halt the progress which the opposition is now promising. Yet I hope that Putin, in the event of a Yushchenko-victory, would try not to be seen on the losing end, and take an initiative to intensify relations with the EU himself. So while this is still maybe less than 50% likelihood, and Ukraine itself might experience continued turmoil, it could have very positive repercussions for the rest of Europe. This is why the Ukrainian opposition deserves measured Western support now, never mind those ballot boxes whose exact contents will maybe never be determined.


0 comments:
Post a Comment

Back to Main Page
This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?