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2004-11-18

End of year predictions 

As an autumn storm is clearing out some of the collected dust in this place, I'm once again in the mood for some political predictions.
I'll come back to this post in 2008. And your predictions?


2 comments:

Okay, here is my prediction:

WARS
I agree that there will not be dominant political crises on the scale of the Iraq war for the next few years.

ECONOMY
Global economy will have major problems due to permanently higher energy prizes. China, India and other currently good evolving countries will have their problems with the high energy costs.

GIANTS AWAKENING
* China - definitely.
* India - definitely, but not in the same way as China.
While China goes it's own way, India seems to get an outsourcing-country of western countries.

UNEASY GIANTS
* Russia - preparing for some new war? I do not know. We will see...

NEIGHBOURS IN PROGRESS
EU and it's memberships will go either the way of a long break, not letting anyone in, before some things are finally cleared. Turkey will play a major role in this process.
Other countries, there I agree, will try to get into the club.

DEMOGRAPHICS
Domestically, a neverending series of pension reforms will be the dominating issue. - I agree and add: Also, the question of immigration will play a major role.

My opinion. Let's wait for 2008.
 

Die EU wird sich in absehbarer Zeit in eine EU der Gründer und eine der Neuankömmlinge spalten. Eigentlich nichts Neues, obwohl man natürlich derzeit nicht von einer Spaltung reden kann, sondern die Neuen noch nicht ganz reingelassen wurden.

Ob die Spaltung schon innerhalb der nächsten vier Jahre erfolgt, ist die Frage.

In Südosteuropa wird sich in den nächsten vier Jahren nichts essentiell stabilisieren.

~ novala
 
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